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California
Commercial Real Estate Listings
California is the largest state by population in the United States and also leads the way with contributing nearly 15% to the country’s gross domestic production. Conversely, California is not immune from boom/bust cycles and runs the largest state deficit with more than $20 billion budget shortfall. Commercial real estate in California is in a spiral downward facing a swelling supply of available properties with anemic demand across all sectors. If the state could be characterized by its greatest weaknesses, it would be the office sectors of Northern California and the industrial sector of Southern California. Should the state government dramatically contract, the results would be disastrous for commercial real estate unless there was a dramatic recovery in the capital markets to offset it.
Rents for office and industrial buildings have been buoyed by a lack of transactions, shorter term lease renewals, new class buildings coming available, and up until now an acceptable amount of unemployment compared to other states due to its highly cyclical economy. With new unemployment numbers coming out with the San Francisco Bay Area hitting 11% unemployed, commercial rents are now expected to fall some 20-30% more through 2010 with some recovery expected in 2011. Others have pushed any recovery out to 2013 expecting even more vacancy coming online as companies shed shadow vacancies. Nonetheless, California is one of the strongest economic producing regions in the world and if treated as a nation state, it would be in the top 10 globally.
The four largest cities in California are Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco. The California commercial real estate industry is massive in comparison to other states including the two largest states in the union - Texas and Alaska. Much of commercial real estate in California can be found in and around the various seaports from San Francisco down the coast to San Diego, and inland to large Central Valley cities like Fresno. No area of California has been immune to the global recession. Along with the rest of the country, demand for office space, industrial space, and other commercial real estate products types is way off starting with significant negative net absorption in 2008.
California has always faired well through large federal spending programs. With its diversified economy, strong agricultural output, technology manufacturing base, major seaports, highly educated workforce, defense industry presence, and the dominate presence venture capitalists, California will bounce back quickly through any such Obama administration programs. California is expected to receive a huge influx of government spending dollars and tax credits for green initiatives and investment into solar power research in particular. It is the hope of many Silicon Valley commercial real estate landlords that their office and R&D buildings will get filled by companies receiving funding to pursue research and development on behalf of government green initiatives. However, the UCLA Anderson Forecast, one of the more respected university funded research institutes, doesn’t see anything indicating that California will lead the way out of the nation’s deep recession.
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